It's Time to Drastically Overreact

Every team in the Premier League has played three games. Who says that isn't enough to make a total wild prediction about one of the league's most iconic teams.

So we’ve had a few matches. Some of the results have been shocking. Others have been expected. But the thing we all want to know is, what hell is going to happen next? Here’s one guess that, going forward, will probably look completely foolish by the time Premier League teams have played all 38 of their fixtures.

Manchester United currently sit third in the table. They have two wins, one draw and have scored five more goals than their opponents. Summer signings Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane finally made their United debuts. All those things should paint a rosy picture for red half of Manchester, right?

Not so fast. The score line says United secured a 1-0 victory against Wolves this Sunday, but only because soccer is a cruel and dumb sport. Even without dominating possession, Wolves dominated the match. The Midlands club outshot United 15 to 10, created far more chances (1.8 to 0.6 xG) and virtually equaled United’s touches in the attacking third and penalty area despite have 12 percent less of the ball. While Wolves possibly being good is a new development (and a story for another newsletter…maybe), United’s struggle to move the ball up the field, or, like, having a general plan is not.

How United gets the ball upfield has been a persistent issue for the club under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The match against Wolves this weekend, on the heels of another shockingly average display against Southampton, confirmed that United have real, underlying issues. There’s a lot of mental hoops one would have to jump to make the case they’re on the same level as City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

Sure, there’s realistic expectations that with time, Varane and Sancho will improve the team’s performance. It’s likely, but not necessarily guaranteed. Pure transfer spend doesn’t translate to on-pitch improvement, especially when there’s every indication that United is helmed by a mediocre (and that might be generous) manager. Just ask Frank Lampard how that worked out with Chelsea.

The bottom line is, through three games, United currently have the statistical profile of a mid-table team. The club is eighth in xG difference per 90 (*all stats from FB Reference unless otherwise noted), eighth in touches in the attacking third and eighth in touches in the penalty area. Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool are all in the top 4, with Chelsea being edged out only by West Ham — a team that spent about the same amount of time in a match playing up a man due to a red card as Chelsea has down one. United are sandwiched in both categories by the likes of Southampton, Brighton and Leeds.

While integrating Sancho into the formless approach might help a little — he is one of the world’s best attackers when it comes to both receiving and moving the ball up the field — it’s not a sure thing because soccer, is, ya know, complicated. Against Wolves, Sancho was barely involved. United relied primarily on Pogba winging passes up the field from a deeper role which was at least something different from last year.

During the 2020-21 season, United’s path through the final third was through their left back, Luke Shaw. Shaw essentially operated like a NFL running back, carrying the ball towards the opponents end zone. Despite missing a shade under nine matches, Shaw led United in carries into the attacking third by 16 more than the next closest player. When a club with the resources of United has that option as one of their leading sources of ball progression, it’s, uhh, not good.

Early on, any hope that United’s new additions would boost them into a different stratosphere aren’t off to a great start, especially when compared to how the rest of the “Big Four” have fared in similar circumstances. Thomas Tuchel turning Chelsea into one of the best defensive clubs in the world is not looking remotely like a fluke. Chelsea’s overall xGA this season looks fairly bad, but you take a hit when you play away, at Anfield and a man down for 45 of 90 minutes (while also giving up a penalty). But in the their first two matches, Tuchel’s suffocating squad allowed just 0.6 xG to their opponents (Arsenal and Crystal Palace). Oh, and that Lukaku dude Chelsea just signed? He’s averaging over an expected goal and assist combined per 90 during his first 180 minutes for his new, old club. Sancho, meanwhile, has posted an xG+xA per 90 of 0.11.

After looking sort of vulnerable away to Spurs on the opening weekend, City cranked that shit up to 11 their past two matches. Kyle Walker played. Gabriel “who needs Harry Kane?” Jesus also was in the starting XI. Their new signing, Jack Grealish, has been outstanding — posting an xG+xA per 90 of 0.74 while leading the team in key passes. Grealish also has a whopping 22 carries into the penalty area, first in all of Europe’s big five leagues and ten more than the next closest player.

With Jesus and Grealish in the side, City created 6.5 xG and score 10 actual goals — four of which the Brazilian forward either scored or assisted himself. Walker, the counter stopper, helped the Citizens allow a hilariously small amount of chances against them. Norwich and Arsenal created just 0.2 xG with zero goals over 180 minutes. With that type of dominance, it doesn’t matter the opponent (Norwich) or the implications of a red card (Granit Xhaka in the Arsenal match), it’s straight up kicking some serious ass. Oh, and by the way, Kevin De Bruyne has played just 12 minutes for City thus far.

The final member of the group locked-in the tier above United are Brighton who — just kidding! — it’s obviously Liverpool. With healthy center backs Liverpool are, well, back. They have the second best xGD per 90, the second fewest passes allowed into the penalty area and the lone actual goal Liverpool have conceded through three matches was off a set piece. It’s almost like not having Premier League quality center backs was an issue last season. Liverpool hasn’t had to integrate any new big signings, but teenager Harvey Elliot looks like a stud. No would probably bet against Jurgen Klopp failing to put him in a position that maximizes his potential.

In comparison to those clubs, United look a mess. Sancho’s, who is legitimately one of the ten or so best attacking players in the world, has played the least amount of minutes of all the big club’s marquee signings. Yet there’s no denying that, despite that caveat, he’s looked completely lost in matches United have mostly gotten extremely lucky in one way or another (see scoring five goals off 1.5 xG against Leeds).

In contrast, City has integrated a new signing into a more complex system all while spending the past two weeks batting opponents around like a cat bats around a ball of string. Chelsea might not allow a goal all season if they don’t lose players to red cards and Lukaku has looked like the missing piece for a title challenge. Liverpool meanwhile swapped Nat Phillips back out for Virgil Van Dijk while adding a teenage sensation, creating a mixture looking far more on the level of the squad the won the title two years ago.

United, meanwhile, labored through two straight matches against a two teams that finished 13th or lower in 2020-21. Their main source of optimism for improvement is basically “Jadon Sancho has been a stud for a really good team before so hopefully he does the same for us”…..which is not a good place to be. In fact, the club’s performances have been so underwhelming in this early going you could make the case that not only is United not a part of the Premier League’s elite, the Manchester giant isn’t even looking like the fourth best team in England.

Spurs may be atop the table with nine points from three matches, but call me when their shot differential drops below -10. West Ham has also seen a bright start….against a fixture list that includes two of the top candidates for relegation and a Leicester side that played a man down for 50 minutes (and has been mediocre for over a year at this point). Since this newsletter has promised a wild prediction based off three matches, we’ll get to it: there’s a strong case to be made that Everton, currently in fourth through three matches, are actually league’s fourth best team. Not United. Not West Ham or Spurs. Fucking Everton.

Before you scoff, hear me out. The Toffees have drawn away at Leeds and won at Brighton, two clubs that finished 2020-21 either in the top half of the league table (Leeds was 9th) or with the underlying numbers of top half team (Brighton finished last year fifth in xGD difference per 90). On the opening weekend, when Everton played their lone home match, they smacked around the same Southampton team that stymied United.

Through three matches, Everton currently have the fourth best xGD per 90. I can’t believe I’m actually going to type this next two sentences but….after 18 months without a clear direction under Carlo Ancelotti, Everton has emerged as a counter-attacking menace. Under Rafa Benitez, Everton may actually have a plan.

Defensively, the Blues are giving up just 0.8 xG per shot, tied for second in the Premier League. Everton also rank in the top half of the league in pretty much every other important defensive category — passes allowed in the penalty area, opponents touches in both the attacking third and penalty area as well as shots allowed per 90. All of these range from a marginal to marked improvement over last season.

Even just slightly tightening up the defense could be enough to push Everton into Champions League race — something the club has desperately wanted since the days Facebook came onto the seen and began warping our society — due to the efficient, direct approach Benitez is building in attack. Sure, drawing and converting two penalties have helped boost their goal output, but the Toffees still have the fourth highest non-penalty xG created in the league through three matches. The reason for this? Pure speed, baby!

According to Stats Perform data collected by the Analyst, Everton are third in the direct speed of their attacks, have the second fewest passes per sequence and the second shortest sequence time. Last season under Ancelotti, the club finished middle of the pack or lower in all those same categories. In other words, after a season idling in neutral, Benitez has shifted the Everton-mobile into fifth gear, moving the ball upfield with ruthless efficiency.

Bargain transfer pickup Demarai Gray has been the catalyst for this new approach. Gray not only has two goals, but he’s leading Everton in progressive carries — one of which preceded his opening goal against Brighton. It’s a stunning transition from the Ancelotti era where the club just kind of…..did stuff. The Benitez speed-ball approach has been so good for Everton that forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin is their leading goal scorer with three in three matches and he’s actually underperforming his xG totals.

In a macro sense, the possibility of Everton overtaking United for the fourth spot is about the power of identity. Last season, Everton, like United under OGS, had none. The overarching idea under both Solskjaer and Ancelotti were “sign players and figure the rest out later.” James Rodriguez, Allan and Abdoulaye Doucoure were supposed to be the pieces Ancelotti needed to push Everton into the Champions League. They finished 10th instead (with the underlying numbers to match).

For United this season, Sancho and Varane were supposed to be the pieces that vaulted them toward the title race. Through three matches, the other three clubs with legitimate title ambitions have integrated or reintegrated huge talents with some impressive performances. United look lost.

While that’s bad news for them, it’s not for the man with a plan at Everton. And he just might wind up turning United’s dreams of a title into the nightmare of fifth place finish.